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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.